Key Facts
Population/Households
Glasgow’s population in 2008 was 584,240. The most recent forecast anticipates an annual rise of 1,800 in the population for the next decade. This constitutes a major improvement in Glasgow’s population position. Glasgow’s population fell by 2,000 per year in 1998-2003 and rose by 1,400 per year between 2003 and 2008. In the last decade, the number of households has continued to rise, reaching an estimated 284,000 in 2008. The latest projection for the City suggests that this figure will increase to 315,000 by 2018. This will mainly be due to the rise in the number of single person households.
A key objective of the City Plan is stemming population loss, principally by reducing out-migration from the City and increasing the choice of housing suitable for family households. To help achieve this objective, planning policy is geared towards the renewal of public sector estates, the creation of new neighbourhoods and the development of community growth areas.
Tenure Change
A continuing feature of recent tenure change in the City is the shift from the social rented to the private sector. Between 1991 and 2008, private sector stock in the City grew by almost 60% (approximately 67,500 homes), while the social rented sector fell by approximately 60,000 homes. In this period, the proportion of private sector stock has increased from 40% to over 61%. The private rented sector continues to expand, more than doubling in size since 1991, and now accounts for 12% of the City’s housing stock. Growth in the private rented sector has been particularly strong since the turn of the century, growing at roughly the same rate as owner-occupation.
Growth in the private sector has been fed by record levels of new house building and by Right to Buy sales that were averaging 2,000 units per year up until 2003. Net growth in the private rented sector has averaged approximately 1,750 houses per year since 2001. Although recent levels of new build by Housing Associations have produced a 20-year high in terms of new provision in the social rented sector, this is offset by the continuing demolition of low demand stock and sales to sitting tenants.
|
Tenure Change in Glasgow, 1991-2008 |
1991 |
1991 (%) |
2008 |
2008 (%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Owner Occupied |
99,235 |
34% |
147,021 |
50% |
|
Private Rented |
14,866 |
5% |
34,634 |
12% |
|
GCC/GHA |
138,347 |
48% |
69,738 |
24% |
|
Other Social Rented |
35,719 |
12% |
44,091 |
15% |
|
Total |
288,167 |
|
295,484 |
|
Housing Activity - Private Sector
Since the turn of the century, private sector house building in Glasgow has been at record levels. By March 2008 it had averaged over 2,600 houses per year, including over 3,200 in each of the last two years. Since then, however, the “credit crunch” has had a major impact on house building activity. The 2008 Housing Land Audit assumes that completions will be significantly lower for the next few years, before returning to more recent levels.
Although private house building in the City has been dominated by flatted developments, there was a marked increase in the completion of houses (detached, semi-detached and terraced) in the three years prior to March 2008. Over 1,100 houses were built in 2007/08. While it is likely that the larger flatted developments will be particularly affected by the economic downturn, the development of family housing is also expected to fall in the short term.
The continuing emergence of new housing opportunities in recent years has seen the City’s land supply for private housing increase to a potential capacity of over 42,000 houses in 2008. However, current market conditions will probably result in, at best, only 40% of that total being built over the next seven years.
City Plan 1 identified a number of greenfield land releases to provide middle-to-upper market detached housing specifically to address the loss of families from the City. Four of the sites (Drumchapel, Leverndale, Deaconsbank and Parkhouse) are complete, three are under construction (Robroyston, Summerston and Broomhouse/Zoo) and two (Crookston and Provanhall) have not yet started. The development of these sites has been the major factor in the upturn in the provision of detached family housing in recent years.
The Agenda for Sustained Growth set out in the Joint Structure Plan Review is reflected in the anticipated growth in the demand for private housing. City Plan 2 identifies three Community Growth Areas at Robroyston/Millerston, Baillieston/Broomhouse/Carmyle and Easterhouse/ Gartloch, with a combined capacity of approximately 4,200 houses. These areas will be geared to delivering a range of family housing and will provide the City with a more balanced range of new housing opportunities. Masterplans are to be prepared for all three areas in consultation with the local communities.
Housing Activity - Social Rented Sector
Approximately 4,000 new houses for social rent have been built in the City in the last five years. Over the same period, 9,500 houses were demolished and about 5,000 sold to sitting tenants. The 2007 review of demand for social housing in the city indicates a continuing decline in the sector from about 110,000 households to around 103,000 in 2019. This represents a further slowing down in the rate of decline experienced in the 1990s.
Significant restructuring of the social rented sector will continue in the period to 2014 in order to create a better mix of provision to meet demand. Glasgow’s Strategic Housing Investment Plan 2009/10 to 2013/14 estimates that in the next five year period over 9,500 properties will be demolished. Demolitions will be concentrated on flatted dwellings particularly Multi-Storey Flats (MSFs). Right to Buy sales are more difficult to project but on current estimates about 3,000 properties will be sold.
Just under 8,000 new houses will be built in the social rented sector, completing the 13,000 new build programme agreed at stock transfer in 2003. This includes the balance of the 6,000 ‘re-provisioning’ houses being built by GHA and Housing Associations to aid the former’s demolition programme.
Since September 2003, the City Council has managed the Development Funding budget which subsidises Housing Associations’ new build and improvement programmes. The Development Funding budget in 2008/09 was £83m made up of three main parts: Core Programme (£50m), Housing Association Re-provisioning Programme (£28m) and Large Scale Voluntary Transfer (LSVT) programme (£5m). GHA’s new build and demolition programmes are directly funded by the Scottish Government but it is anticipated that the City Council will take over management of these budgets during 2009.
Projects
Transformational Regeneration Areas
The Council and GHA have jointly identified 8 priority areas of major stock restructuring. These areas are likely to contain a significant proportion of GHA’s future demolition programme and represent major regeneration opportunities that will provide both replacement social rented housing and new private housing. The areas are: Gallowgate, Sighthill, Laurieston, East Govan/Ibrox, Shawbridge, Maryhill, North Toryglen and Red Road. Recent activity has focused on establishing a mechanism for delivering the regeneration of these areas, in order to draw on the respective strengths of the public and private sectors. Three areas (Laurieston, Maryhill and Gallowgate) have been identified to progress during the initial partnership phase. Discussions are continuing with the Scottish Government about the potential of these three areas to make early progress.
New Neighbourhoods
The proposed New
Neighbourhoods (Drumchapel, Ruchill/Keppoch, Oatlands and Garthamlock) represent some of the most significant regeneration opportunities in the City. They were identified partly to address the issue of the loss of families from the City and their scale will enable middle-market family housing to be developed in areas where private housing markets are being established. Significant progress has been made on site at Garthamlock and Oatlands, and development has started at Drumchapel. Various sites are being developed within the Ruchill/Keppoch area, although the "credit crunch" has stalled the release of the two major development opportunities at Ruchill Hospital and Cowlairs. Despite the progress made, current economic conditions will delay completion of all the New Neighbourhoods.
Useful Links
Housing
Glasgow Housing Asscoiation