Context

Glasgow is by far the largest of Scotland’s cities, with a population of 584,240 in 2008. The City is located at the centre of the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Conurbation, which has a population of 1,755,310.

Since the 1930s, Glasgow has experienced a considerable decline in its population. In recent decades, the Council has taken action to reverse this decline. Recent statistics show that this has been successful. GROS population estimates show an increase in the City’s population of over 1,400 per year since 2003. In the next decade it is projected that the City will see an increase in the number of working age population, pre-school and primary school age children, whilst the numbers of secondary school age children and people of pensionable age are expected to fall.

The make-up of the City’s population is diverse with substantial Pakistani, Indian, Chinese, African and Caribbean communities and, in recent years, a higher number of people from Eastern Europe. These groups make a notable contribution to the social, cultural and economic well-being of the City. People from minority ethnic groups account for over 5.5% of the City’s population and the Council is committed to ensuring that all citizens have equal access to the full range of services provided in Glasgow.

Key Facts

Population Trends

Between 2003 and 2008, the City’s population has risen by over 1,400 per year.  Whilst loss through natural change has averaged about 300 per year, migration has more than compensated for this by a net inflow of around 1,700 per year. This improvement primarily relates to long-distance migration and reflects the shift from a net outflow of working-age population in the late 1990s to a net inflow since 2000. The City’s asylum seeker contract has been an important factor in this regard, as has, more recently, in-migration from EU Accession Countries. In terms of more ‘localised’ migration, the City shows a net loss to other parts of the Conurbation.

Local authority areas adjoining Glasgow show varied demographic trends. East Renfrewshire saw an increase in population in the 1990s, but shows a stable position since 2001. Renfrewshire, East and West Dunbartonshire are all losing population. North and South Lanarkshire experienced population losses in the late 1990s, but have been gaining population since 2001.

The proportion of Glasgow’s population aged 20-29 rose from 16% to 19% between 1998 and 2008. In Glasgow, the number of 20-29 year olds as a percentage of population is 42% above the Scottish average. This has a positive effect on the demand for housing, as this is the age group from which many new households are usually formed. Although the actual number in this age group has risen by 20% in the period 1998 to 2008, this number is projected to decline back to 1998 levels over the period to 2018.

In comparison with Scotland, Glasgow’s population has a higher proportion of young adults (age 20-39) and relatively fewer of middle age/pre-retirement age (age 40–ret). The number of pensionable age has been falling by about 13% during the last decade and the proportion of pensioners in Glasgow’s population (at 16.4%) is now lower than the average for Scotland (at 19.7%). This difference is projected to increase in the next decade.

Births and Deaths

In Glasgow, as well as nationally, the last ten years have been characterised by low birth rates, compared with the “baby boom” years of the 1950s and 1960s. This dramatic change in birth rates, which has also taken place in other industrialised countries, is reflected in the City’s age structure. The children of the 1950s and the 1960s are now in their forties and fifties and the younger age groups are smaller in number. The number of births in the City is rising gradually: from 6,573 in 2003 to 7,371 in 2008.

Between 2001 and 2006, Glasgow’s mortality was about 29% above the Scottish rate which, in turn, was higher than the rate for England and Wales. Statistics for these years show mortality from lung cancer at more than 40% above the Scottish average. Substantial efforts are being made to improve the City’s health record (see Health Factsheet), but this will be a long-term process. 

Since the late 1980s, there has been a fall in the number of elderly people resident in the City. The number of people of retirement age, as a percentage of Glasgow’s population, is projected to stabilise over the next ten years at 16.4%.

Between 1998 and 2008, births averaged 6,750 per annum, whereas there was an average of 7,527 deaths per annum. Births and deaths, which together account for natural change in the population, have led to an average reduction in the population of the City of 777 per annum. Since 1998, the rate of population loss through natural change has decreased due mainly to a continuing fall in the number of deaths (down from 8,580 in 1998/99 to 6,851 in 2007/08). This is a result of the lower number of elderly in Glasgow’s population. It is predicted that the natural change population loss will continue to reduce rapidly over the next few years and that, towards the end of the projection period (2018), natural change will result in a population gain of over 1,000 per year due to an excess of births over deaths.

Migration

During the 1960s and early 1970s, a large number of people moved away from Glasgow. This provided an opportunity to reduce housing densities and improve conditions in some parts of the City. High levels of out-migration continued until 1978. Since then, the migration loss has gradually reduced in line with the Council’s policy objective to halt the loss of population and to encourage more people to live in the City. Between 2002 and 2007, Glasgow has had an annual population gain of 0.3% due to net in-migration. This compares with annual gains in other large UK cities of 0.9% for Manchester and for Leeds, 0.8% for Edinburgh and 0.5% for Sheffield. There were annual population losses due to net out-migration in Birmingham (-0.2%) and Liverpool (-0.3%).

During the 1980s, people tended to leave the City mainly for employment or housing reasons.  Over the period 1981 to 1991, total employment fell by 11% in the City and manufacturing employment by 44%. More recently, Glasgow’s employment performance has improved (a rise of 13% between 1998 and 2007). The improved employment situation has been a key factor in the turnaround of Glasgow’s migration position. However, given the world-wide economic downturn, there is now uncertainty how these conditions will affect future migration levels.

The recent improvement in Glasgow’s migration position reflects a considerable net inflow from long-distance migration. This has more than compensated for the net outflow of around 4,000 people to the rest of the West of Scotland conurbation. There are currently 270,600 Glasgow residents in work (2008). The majority of those choosing to move from the City to live elsewhere in the conurbation still continue to work in Glasgow. Results from the 2002 housing choice survey show that, although the City has attracted more small households, especially young adults living on their own, the number of family and pensioner households moving to the suburbs has increased since 1994.

In a determined effort to redress this situation, action has been taken to increase housing choice in the City. This includes the development of four new neighbourhoods in different housing market areas (Drumchapel, Garthamlock, Oatlands and Ruchill/Keppoch) and the release of nine greenfield sites (with a capacity of almost 2,000 houses). The purpose of these policy initiatives is to retain and to attract back families to the City from surrounding local authority areas.

Current Projections

Current projections show an annual rise of 1,800 in the City’s population over the next 10 years. Although the improving migration position is a factor in these projections, the main reason for the population increase is the likely further improvement in the City’s natural change position, due to a further rise in the number of births and further fall in the number of deaths. The number of households is expected to continue to increase, but at a higher rate: 3,100 per year for 2008 to 2018, compared with 1,400 per year for 2003 to 2008. The number of households is projected to rise from 284,000 in 2008 to 315,000 in 2018.

Sources: (1) Census and (2) Registrar General Mid Year Estimates

Useful Links

Population and Housing