4.1 Loss of population, in particular families, is a major concern for Glasgow in terms of its effect on the Citys fiscal base and on the demand for services. Glasgows population fell significantly during the 1980s. In 1999, there were an estimated 611,440 residents in the City. Based on past trends Glasgows population is projected to decline to 595,510 by the year 2009 (Figure 4.1).

Figure 4.1 : Population Change

4.2 Natural change, the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths each year, is outside the influence of the planning system. In Glasgow, the combination of above average mortality rates and a decline in fertility rates in women of child bearing age, significantly contributes to the Citys net annual loss of population.

4.3 Net out-migration also contributes to population loss and partly reflects the loss of employment opportunities and the fact that the Citys housing stock does not meet the lifelong needs of all its residents. These are factors that can be influenced by the planning system.

Glasgow's children

4.4 There are encouraging signs that net out-migration can be stemmed. Recent trends in
housing completions, with annual totals of between 1,750 and 2,160 in the last five years, compare favourably with the high point in private housing completions experienced in the late 1980s. The Citys improved economic performance and employment growth during the 1990s, is also expected to continue. The outlook for population is more favourable than it has been at any time for 30 years. The continued loss of population is not inevitable. Action will, however, be necessary if the decline is to be arrested and, in the long term, population growth achieved.

4.5 Glasgows Housing Land Supply can deliver 14,237 new private housing units in the period 2000 - 2007, sufficient to support over 2,000 completions per year. The Council is concerned, however, to satisfy the needs of all sectors of the housing market. Evidence from the Housing Choice Survey 1994 suggested that family households left Glasgow for neighbouring settlements, partly in response to a shortage of opportunities in the middle-market sector (Figure 4.2). The Survey identified the need to provide opportunities for middle-market owner occupied housing on brownfield sites, including those in developing market areas previously dominated by public rented stock, such as Drumchapel and Ruchill.

Figure 4.2 : Migration

4.6 In terms of the upper sector of the housing market in particular, there is a concern that the supply, 94% of which is located on brownfield sites, is not sufficiently diverse to maintain recent output. A qualitative analysis of the Citys land supply suggests that although the supply of upper-market flats is likely to be sustained from windfall sources on brownfield sites, opportunities to provide upper-market family houses (defined as detached houses with five or more apartments), are limited. Between 1997 and 2000, an average of 250 detached houses with five or more apartments were completed annually in Glasgow. It is unlikely that this output can be sustained beyond 2003, without supplementing the land supply.

4.7 The range of new house types being built in Glasgow changed during the 1990s, with a lower proportion of flats and more larger properties being constructed. Nevertheless, the high percentage of flats in the Citys second-hand supply means that Glasgows proportion of house types in the upper price bands is lower than in neighbouring suburban authorities.

4.8 Over the last 20 years, the City has seen a dramatic shift towards owner-occupation, driven by private sector construction and right-to-buy sales. Refurbishment of the Citys Victorian private sector tenement stock has also contributed significantly to improved housing quality and choice. While the trend towards greater levels of owner-occupation is likely to continue, the stock of social rented houses is projected to fall from 134,000 in 2000 to less than 121,000 by 2006. Social rented housing is, nevertheless, extremely important to Glasgow, both in terms of providing an alternative to owner occupation or private renting, and as the main source of housing for lower income households and socially excluded groups. Figure 4.3 shows each tenure as a percentage of the Citys housing stock.

Figure 4.3 : Housing Stock by Tenure

4.9 The condition of the social rented stock is a major concern, with 7,716 Council owned houses classed as Below the Tolerable Standard (BTS) in 1999. Housing Association stock is generally in better condition, due largely to the refurbishment of existing housing and the higher proportion of recently built stock. Although the Housing Association sector is expanding, the contraction of the social rented sector as a whole is expected to continue, mainly through right-to-buy sales and further demolition of low demand stock. The transfer of the remaining Council houses to the Glasgow Housing Association provides an opportunity to stabilise this stock through a major
improvement programme, encouraging the creation of mixed-tenure neighbourhoods with good quality social rented housing alongside owner-occupied houses.

Glasgow Tenements

4.10 Despite the significant levels of refurbishment and new build activity over the past two decades, the condition of Glasgows existing housing stock remains a matter for concern, with just under 22,000 (7.7%) houses in both the private and public sectors estimated to be Below the Tolerable Standard in 1999, twice the Scottish average (Figures 4.4 and 4.5). Much of this is social rented and Victorian tenement stock. Its condition contributes to poor health and, in respect of the tenement stock, to the degradation of an integral part of the Citys architectural heritage.

Figure 4.4 : Dwellings Below Tolerable Standard in Scotland, 1999

Figure 4.5 : Dwellings Below Tolerable Standard in Glasgow, 1999

4.11 Glasgows private rented sector experienced significant growth in the 1990s, due to the financial incentives introduced by the Government in the late 1980s. The sector is still relatively small, comprising only 18,573 houses (or about 7% of the Citys total stock). It is important to the City, however, as a shorter-term alternative to owner-occupation. Since 1990, an average of 2,000 jobs per annum have been created by inward investors in Glasgow, due in part to the quality of the Citys workforce, but also to the availability of good quality accommodation at the upper end of the private rented market.

4.12 The majority of mainstream private rented houses are second hand, with a small proportion comprising houses in multiple occupation. At April 2000, 433 houses were assessed as being in multiple occupation, mostly in Glasgows West End. Multiple occupancies are a valuable source of housing for many people in Glasgow, but it is important that over concentrations of these properties, or lack of maintenance and repair, do not lead to environmental health or safety issues, or deterioration in the quality of residential areas. The Council is working towards the registration of all multiple occupancies in Glasgow, a process that requires properties to have either planning consent or a Certificate of Lawful Use. Policy RES 13: Multiple Occupancy, sets out the standards that multiple occupancies must meet for planning consent or a Certificate of Lawful Use to be granted. For multiple occupancies in the City Centre see policy CC/RES 3.