Briefing 10: Levels of Employment (City Comparisons)

Overview

The purpose of this note is to provide information on recent employment trends in Glasgow, to make comparisons with other areas and to put it in a historical context.

As previously commented, information is available from the Annual Population Survey (APS) on employment levels for Glasgow and other local authorities. As a survey, it is not an overall count, and while it would be preferable to have other data to corroborate these findings, there is at present nothing that can perform that function.

Levels of Employment

The key message is that since March 2020, at the start of the pandemic, employment levels in Glasgow have shown an increase; in fact the current level of residents in employment is one of the highest since the current data set was introduced in 2004.

The table shows that the numeric and percentage increase in Glasgow is higher for the cities shown; and that Aberdeen, Leeds, Scotland and Great Britain have shown a decline in employment.

Table 1: Levels of Employment, Selected Cities

Trends in Employment

The current employment level is radically different from previous record. The predecessor of the APS, the Labour Force Survey, recorded that for 1996 there were 196,000 residents of Glasgow in employment, and that compared with the latest figure of 304,100, this represents an increase of 108,100, and by 55.2%.

Table 2: Trends in Employment, Selected Cities

This represents a considerable change and Glasgow is not alone in seeing a major increase in employment. It should be added that the reasons for such large increases in Glasgow, Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham is probably because even in 1997 these cities were still seeing the effects of the de industrialisation that took place during the 1980s.

Comparisons between Employment and Working-Age Population

There are two main reasons why the numbers in employment in an area might increase, one is that there are more opportunities to move into employment, which may also be linked to the ability of people to take on paid work, itself a reflection of education and training and the other reason is that the number of people of working age might also have increased.

The working-age population total includes people in employment, and also in full-time education, with full-time caring responsibilities, with sickness/disabilities; and those in early retirement.

Table 3: Comparisons between Change in Employment and Change in Working-Age Population

Working-Age Population, age between 16 and 64

It is interesting to see that the increase in employment in Glasgow was substantially greater than the increase in the number of people of working age; the same thing happening in Liverpool.

Universal Credit Claims for People in Employment

It needs to be emphasised that the above trends are not in themselves a measure of the quality of employment. Details of Universal Credit claims for people in work during the period of the pandemic show that in-work poverty is still an issue, and an increasing factor.  In all but one city (Dundee) these claims more than doubled.

The policy consequences may be about progression while in employment, links to training opportunities, and support for lone parents (childcare).

Table 4: Universal Credit Claims for People in Employment