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Briefing 12: 2021 Mid-Year Population Estimates
Overview
The 2021 mid-year population estimates have recently been released by National Records of Scotland. These are not the results of the 2021 census, as we expect that data to become available in around 12 months.
The headline figure from the estimates is that Glasgow's population stands at 635,200, which is a marginal decrease of 400 from the 2020 mid-year population estimate of 635,600.
Population Age Breakdown for Glasgow
The age breakdown is shown in the following table:
Table 1: Population Age Breakdown for Glasgow
Age | 2020 | 2021 | No | % | 2011 | 2021 | No | % |
0-14 | 95,000 | 94,300 | -700 | -0.7 | 89,700 | 94,300 | 4,600 | 5.1 |
15-24 | 84,400 | 81,700 | -2,700 | -3.2 | 94,900 | 81,700 | -13,200 | -13.9 |
25-44 | 220,000 | 223,400 | 3,400 | 1.5 | 184,600 | 223,400 | 38,800 | 21.0 |
45-64 | 150,600 | 149,200 | -1,400 | -0.9 | 141,700 | 149,200 | 7,500 | 5.3 |
65-80 | 62,800 | 64,100 | 1,300 | 2.1 | 59,700 | 64,100 | 4,400 | 7.4 |
80+ | 22,800 | 22,500 | -300 | -1.3 | 22,500 | 22,500 | 0 | 0.0 |
Total | 635,600 | 635,200 | -400 | -0.1 | 593,100 | 635,200 | 42,100 | 7.1 |
Source: National Records of Scotland
The clear sign is that the recent fall is quite at odds with the general trend over the last decade; which has shown a general increase of 42,100, 7.1% (Scotland over the same period, 3.4%).
Some of the points to note on the age breakdown are as follows
- Continued reduction in the number of people in the 15-24 age group, a possible reflection of the fall in the number of births that took place between 1991 and 2006, and which will have important implications on the number of new entrants into the labour market.
- Strong increase in the size of the 25-44 age group, likely due to in-migration, and which has compensated for the reduction in the number of births in Glasgow.
- Small increase in the 65-80 age group, but not so much in the 80+ age group.
Age Comparisons between Glasgow and Other Areas
The population age profile in Glasgow is quite different from neighbouring local authorities and Scotland.
Table 2: Age Composition Comparisons between Glasgow and Other Areas (2021)
Table 2: Age Composition Comparisons between Glasgow and Other Areas (2021)
Age | Glasgow | Non-Glasgow Conurb | Scotland |
0-14 | 14.8% | 16.5% | 15.6% |
15-24 | 12.9% | 11.0% | 11.2% |
25-44 | 35.2% | 24.4% | 26.4% |
45-64 | 23.5% | 28.5% | 27.2% |
65-80 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 14.6% |
80+ | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
Source: National Records of Scotland
The Non-Glasgow Conurbation includes North and South Lanarkshire; East and West Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire and Inverclyde.
As the table shows:
- The size of the 0-14 age group is smaller than in the surrounding area and in Scotland, however and in spite of recent decreases, the size of the 15-24 age group is higher.
- The big difference is with the size of the 25-44 age group, a significant part of the employed population, and which is significantly larger in Glasgow than in the other areas.
- Glasgow's 65+ population is 13.6% of the total population, lower than in the surrounding area (19.7%) and in Scotland (19.6%).
Additional information is available on trends between 2011 and 2021, and on migration patterns.
During that period, and as shown above, Glasgow's population increased from 593,100 to 635,200. Things have not been static, as at the same time, a total migration in-flow of 324,450 was offset by a migration out-flow of 288,920, leaving a net migration increase of 35,520. This suggests a large amount of population movement and change over the ten year period.
