Briefing 13: 2021 Mid-Year Population Estimates

Overview

Previous briefings mentioned migration trends as being a major factor influencing demographic change.  Using data from National Records of Scotland information is available on three types of migration; to and from the rest of Scotland, the rest of the UK and from overseas. 

The most recent data is available for 2020-21.

Migration to and from Glasgow

The key point from the data for Glasgow is that during 2020-21 36,400 persons were recorded as having moved into Glasgow, while 36,010 left the city for another location.  Net migration was therefore still positive, but by a small amount.  The real insight is the geographical distinction between in and out migration according to location

• Rest of Scotland, 17,200 people moved in, 23,670 people left, a net population loss of 6,470;
• Rest of UK, 7,700 moved in, 7,460 moved out, a net gain of 310;
• Overseas, 11,430 moved in, 4,880 moved out, a net population gain of 6,550, and enough to offset the population loss from movements to and from the rest of Scotland.

Further details and comparisons over time are shown in the table below.

Table 1: Trends in Migration to and from Glasgow

Source: National Records of Scotland

The data suggests that the low level of net migration for 2020-21 was something of an outlier compared to previous years, even if it was still positive.  While Glasgow consistently loses population to the rest of Scotland, the impact of this is offset by the net gain from overseas migration.  Moves to and from the rest of the UK excluding Scotland are also positive.  While it is to be expected that the pandemic will have had an influence on this data, it is probably too early to comment on the size of this influence. 

The migration moves are recorded at local authority level, and as such are influenced by the location of local authority boundaries.  Quite short moves within the apparent same built-up area may involve migration into or out of the Glasgow local authority area.  Of the moves into Glasgow from the rest of Scotland, 7,600 (44.2%) involved the surrounding local authorities; while for the moves out of Glasgow, 13,600 (57.4%) involved these same authorities.

Net Migration by Age Group, Glasgow

Additional insight comes from information on the age groups involved in these moves.  The available information is for all types of migration and is a net figure that doesn't reflect the size of the population moving in or out, as it only states the difference between them, subtracting moves out from moves in.  For convenience, the data has been grouped age groups, each of fifteen years. 

Table 2: Net Migration by Age Group, Glasgow

Source: National Records of Scotland

The clear and consistent pattern that the main factor in the net increase in migration in Glasgow over the last five years has been the 15-29 year age group; large enough to counter the met migration loss of all other age groups.  One of the clear outcomes of this has been to minimise the impact of the decline in the number of births in Glasgow over the last thirty years, and which would have expected to have had by now an impact on the size of the working-age population.  To a lesser extent, these trends also help to explain why Glasgow has not been affected as it might have been by the general increase in the elderly population across Scotland in general (13.6% of Glasgow's population is aged 65 and over, compared with 19.6% in Scotland, according to the 2021 mid year estimates).

Summary

The main items to take from this analysis are

• Moves into Glasgow are still larger than moves out;
• The main driver is moves involving people from overseas locations, with a net impact greater than moves within Scotland;
• This trend, which has been in place for a number of years, will increase the diversity of the city's population and will be in addition to the existing ethnic minority population;
• The main impact of these moves involves the 15-29 age group, maintaining the number of people of working age in Glasgow.