Briefing: 18 Census 2022, Preliminary Data Analysis

Overview

Information is gradually becoming available from the census and conclusions can be drawn from these details.  Analysis of other data can identify a set of themes on which it is anticipated that the census will provide clarification.  The purpose of this note is to provide some of this background information in the lead up to more comprehensive information from the census.

The three main trends on which the census is expected to provide insight include;

• changes in the age structure of the population;
• increasing diversity in terms of ethnic minorities and residents from outside the UK;
• signs of improvement in the resident employment structure. 

Census details going back to 1971 are now available so that data from 2022 can be set in a context going back the last fifty years.  Trends in Glasgow can be compared with adjoining local authorities and the rest of Scotland.

There are several ways in which this data can be interpreted.  This paper identified some of them and the intention is to use them to initiate a discussion about the broader context and the position of Glasgow relative to other areas and the changes over time.

Current Census Highlights and Additional Information

Age-based demographic data at local authority level has already been made available.  Although the total population is lower in 2022 than in 1971 and 1981, there are now more people in the younger part of the working age population, namely the 25 to 44 age cohort.  The point is not just that Glasgow has one of the highest proportions of its population in the 25-44 age group; it is also about explaining why it was so low in the 1970s and 1980s.

Recent migration data shows that while Glasgow loses population to the rest of Scotland, there is a net gain in moves from the rest of the UK and from non-UK locations.  These moves have been sufficient to offset the loss to the rest of Scotland.  They have also counterbalanced the reduction in the number of births in Glasgow since the 1990s, which would otherwise by now be having a significant impact on the size of the working age population in the city.  The outcome is also that the population of the city is becoming more diverse with an increasing number of people from different backgrounds.

There are signs that the employment situation in Glasgow is improving, for both workplace employment (the number of jobs in Glasgow regardless of where people live) and resident employment (the number of residents in Glasgow in employment, regardless of where they work).  It has not always been the case in the past that an increase in workplace employment has had the expected impact on resident employment; however there are now signs that the situation is changing.

Age-Based Demographics

In terms of the overall Scotland population, the general analysis of age-based demographics is that it is the elderly 65+ age group that has been increasing and has been responsible for population increases.  In Glasgow this is not really the case as the main driver of the recent population increase has been the 25-44 age group.  Another change has been the reduction in the size of the 0-14 age group. 

These details can be seen in Table1, which uses the current local authority boundary with data adjusted to take into account boundary changes.

Table 1: Age - Based Demographics for Glasgow 

Source: Census

Table 2: Percentage of Population in Age Cohorts 

Source: Census

Another way of understanding the data is as a percentage of the total population, as shown in Table 2.

At 31.9%, Glasgow has the highest share of its population in the 25-44 age group in Scotland, compared with 31.3% in Edinburgh and overall 25.3% in Scotland (GB 26.4%).  Trends with other areas are shown in Table 3.  NGC is abbreviation for Non-Glasgow Conurbation and included the local authorities surrounding Glasgow, North and South Lanarkshire, East and West Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire, and Inverclyde.  Due to local government boundary changes, an estimation has been made to include those within the current boundary geography.

Table 3: Percentage of Population Aged 25-44 for Different Areas 

Source: Census

In Glasgow there has been a gradual increase in the share of the 25-44 age group so that it is now larger than both the Scottish and surrounding area rate.  This is only what would be expected for a city the size of Glasgow.

The 1971 census shows that the percentage of the population aged 25-44 was considerably higher in areas surrounding Glasgow than in Glasgow itself, this includes areas such as Bishopbriggs (33.6%), Cumbernauld (32.5%), East Kilbride (29.7%) and Bearsden (29.4%).  These rates are similar to those for Glasgow in 2022. 

Between 2011 and 2022, according to the census, Glasgow was the only local authority where the percentage increase in the 25-44 age group (7.3%, 13,390 persons) was greater than the percentage increase in the 65+ age group (6.0%, 4,935 persons).  In 24 of the 32 Scottish local authorities the number of people in the 25-44 age group declined, which was also the case for Scotland in general.

Immigration Trends and Diversity 

Table 4 shows recent data on migration trends provides some information as to how the population in Glasgow has been changing.  In overall net migration trends, Glasgow loses population to the rest of Scotland, but gains population from the rest of the UK, and in the movement of population from non-UK locations.

Table 4: Net Migration Trends for Glasgow (In-migration minus Out-Migration)

Source: National Records of Scotland

In addition, the number of births has been in decline from the 1990s; it is now 6,112 (2022) compared with 9,027 in 1991; a fall of 32,3% compared with an overall fall of 29.9% in Scotland over the same time period.  There is a consistent trend that each year more people leave Glasgow to go to the rest of Scotland than move into Glasgow.  Coupled with the decline in the number of births, this should by now be having an impact on the labour supply; the reason it is not is because of the in-migration trends involving the rest of the UK and non-UK locations, which are now having an impact in increasing the level of diversity in the city.

4.2. Analysis of net migration by five year age band shows that the only consistent age groups where in-migration exceeds out-migration are the three in the 15-29 age cohort; and this has been the case for the most recent data that has been made available, as set out in Table 5. 

Table 5: Glasgow: Net migration by five year age band, Trends Since 2022

Source: National Records of Scotland, data aggregated from individual years.

Information from other sources supports this increase in diversity;

• Data from the UK Government's EU Settlement Scheme shows that between August 2018 and September 2023 60,540 applications from Glasgow residents were made, 17.7% of the Scottish total; and greater than the total for the NGC 34,740 at 10.1%;
• Department of Work and Pensions data on the number of National Insurance numbers issued to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK shows that for the year ending December 2023 14,927 NI numbers were issued to eligible residents in Glasgow, 26.7% of the total in Scotland, and double the 12.8% of the total issued to NGC residents;
• National Records of Scotland has data on the country of birth of mothers giving birth, in 2022 34.5% of the 6,112 births in Glasgow were to mothers born outside the UK, compared to 10.2% in the NGC and 18.1% for Scotland overall;
• The Higher Education Statistics Agency for 2021/22 shows that of the 92,420 students in the five higher education institutions in Glasgow, 27,510 come from overseas; the largest groups being from China (10,350), India (3,200), USA (1,330) and Nigeria (1,255).  The Graduate Route (now under review) allows students to stay in the UK for two to three years after they graduate.

Economic Changes Over Time 

The third main trend is the impact this is having on employment and the economy; there are signs that the level of resident employment has been increasing in line with increases in the level of workplace employment.  Workplace employment in census years is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Trends in Workplace Employment

Source: Annual Employment Survey, Annual Business Inquiry, Business Research and Employment Survey

The table clearly shows the impact of deindustrialisation in Glasgow between 1971 and 1991, during which time the number of jobs fell by -30.2%, compared with -7.3% in the NGC, while overall in Scotland the number remained basically the same.  Between 1991 and 2022, the number of jobs increased in Glasgow by 33.4%, by 18.6% in the NGC, and overall in Scotland  by 25.9%.

The relationship between workplace and resident employment, coupled with an estimate of the employment rate, can be seen in Table 7. 

Table 7: Comparisons between Workplace and Resident Employment

Source: AES, ABI, BRES, census; 2022 resident and employment rate from Annual Population Survey

While the number of jobs in Glasgow increased from 323,000 in 1991 to 388,000 in 2001; the number of residents in employment fell from 222,000 to 202,000 over the same time period.  This may be due to much of the increase in employment being taken up by in-commuters from the surrounding area.  Any multiplier effect resulting from this increase in employment may have been dispersed throughout the city region, possibly missing the areas of greatest need within the Glasgow city boundary.

The situation has changed over the last ten to fifteen years; Table 8 points to a remarkable consistency between the increase in the working age population in Glasgow, the increase in workplace employment and the increase in resident employment.

Table 8: Employment Trends in Glasgow, 2008 and 2021

Source: Annual Population Survey, year to March

The trends are quite different between Glasgow and the surrounding local authorities; while resident employment in Glasgow increased by 51,800, it decreased by 21,800 in the NGC.  Workplace employment increased by 50,000 in Glasgow, and decreased by 23,300 in the NGC.  The NGC also saw a decrease of 17,500 in the size of its working age population.

More recent data is available and helps to set out the context within which the census information can be analysed.  Table 9 sets out workplace and resident employment trends for Glasgow and shows that the number of workplace jobs increased by 30,000, and the number of residents in employment rose by 31,900.  By contrast, in the surrounding local authorities workplace employment decreased by 7,000, and resident employment fell by 9,400. 

Table 9: Workplace and Resident Employment in Glasgow over recent years

Source: Annual Population Survey

Comparisons with Other Areas 

There are also variations in age-based demographic geography.  Overall in Scotland, the total population increased by 2.7%, the 25-44 age cohort decreased by -1.9%, and the population aged 65+ increased by 22.5%.  Trends in cities have been broadly similar, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Glasgow and Other Scottish Cities

Source: Census 2022

Glasgow is the only local authority where the percentage increase in the 25-44 age cohort was greater than the percentage increase in the 65+ population.

The situation changes when the focus is taken away from the city, as shown in Table 11. 

Table 11: Glasgow and Surrounding Local Authorities

There is a contrast between Glasgow and some selected rural local authorities; all of which have a declining 25-44 age cohort, and a substantial increase in the 65+ population, as in Table 12.

Table 12: Glasgow and Selected Rural Local Authorities

Source: National Records of Scotland

This shows that Glasgow is alone in having an increasing population in which the percentage change in the size of the 25-44 age group is greater than the rate of increase in the 65+ cohort.  This data is at local authority level, and it is likely that there are substantial variations within rural areas.

Overall Conclusions and Further Analysis

Drawing conclusions from data can be quite subjective, however some themes for further analysis can be identified.

• Glasgow Census Results 
  The census results for Glasgow point to an ending of the long term consequences of planned depopulation, overspill town population moves, and new town developments that took place during the latter half of the twentieth century.  These moves would have been attractive to the younger population and also to those with a mindset welcoming and able to adapt to a set of new circumstances.  This led to Glasgow having an unbalanced population profile which is now not the case.  The availability of small area data will assist in the analysis of New Towns, around fifty years since their inception.
   
• Demographic Trends
  Demographic trends in Glasgow and other major urban areas in Scotland, especially for the 25-44 and 65+ age groups, are quite different from rest of Scotland.  It remains to be seen if these trends are at their peak and may  be reduced; or if they are likely to continue and to widen the gap between urban and rural areas.
   
• Immigration
  For Glasgow, in-migration from the rest of UK and from overseas compensates for the decline in births and that out-migration to the rest of Scotland exceeds in-migration; the 15-29 age group for all migrants is the only age group in which in-migration exceeds out-migration.  The outcome is that the population in Glasgow is young and becoming increasingly diverse.  Again, the question is if this trend has already reached a peak, or if the current trend is likely to continue.
   
• Age Based Demographics
  The analysis of age-based demographic data provides an insight into understanding why Glasgow faced some many problems in the years following deindustrialisation and during the period when workplace jobs were increasing while not having the expected outcome on resident employment.  It was not just that there was a significant fall in the number of workplace jobs in the city, there was also a fall in the number of young working age adults, many of whom had moved to suburbs, new towns and overspill towns.  The relative absence of this population in Glasgow at the time may have worsened the impact of deindustrialisation.
   
• Wider Scottish Context
  For 2022, and in a wider Scottish context, the pressure on service provision and lack of an available labour supply as shown in places with increases in the 65+ population matched with a decrease in the 25-44 age group may lead to unforeseen consequences.  At a broader level, the availability of a young adult labour supply may increasingly become the determinant of economic development.

The overall tone of this note is to point to the positive aspects of a young, diverse and economically active population; however many residents and areas in Glasgow may be unaffected by these trends and the concern is that the outcome could be a city of increasing inequalities unless steps are taken to ensure that all areas participate in these outcomes.

Further census data should provide the basis for analysing and in further interpreting these trends.  And to highlight where in Glasgow these changes are taking place.  The availability of other data may also identify some other trends that have not been anticipated; that in itself is one of the strengths of the census and which will set the basis for future information briefings.